The outbreak, the largest black swan of the past, has morphed into the largest "grey rhinoceros" of the moment, heading straight to a room full of "china". The first data show that the global epidemic has been a second outbreak, the new confirmed cases have risen, including the United States, India, Mexico, South Africa and other new confirmed cases hit a new high, the world's new confirmed cases for many days more than 200,000, a new step up.

At present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases has already exceeded 15 million, of which the cumulative confirmed cases in the United States have exceeded 4 million, Brazil is close to 2.3 million, India is close to 1.3 million.

More seriously, don't look at the current outbreak worsens, but with the current outbreak development, the United States, Brazil and India are still in the first wave of the outbreak is still not over, the peak of the outbreak has not yet occurred, winter is likely to be a major outbreak.

If the global population does not reach the global immunization before the start of winter, and there is no comprehensive control of the virus, coupled with increased virus replication and indoor activity, the risk of a second wave of rebound in the outbreak is greater.

Many expect outbreaks and protection to become normal and the human world to coexist with the virus for a long time.

As things stand, the forecast is absolutely correct!

Under the impact of the outbreak, the world's major economies have adopted unprecedented loose monetary policy and expansionary fiscal relief policy. In the short term, these policies have stabilized financial market expectations and restored market order. But massive quantitative easing has not lifted the economy out of recession.

Most of the base currencies that the Fed expanded its balance sheet increased were kept in the banking system by banks in the form of Fed deposits, did not inject into the economy, limited increases in the base currency in circulation, and most of the increased money flowed into the stock market, leading to a severe recession that quickly recovered and hit new highs. This is no essential difference from the economic policy paradox esprecory that existed before the outbreak hit, but the difference is that it becomes more acute.

The impact of the outbreak calls for more effective global governance, but we may have to face more relatively disorderly competition and the loss of global economic efficiency before the forces of the major economies, the major powers and the big group of nations have reached a stable relative balance.

Against this backdrop, the trend towards regional cooperation, the inter-group nature of countries with similar emotions and interests that had preceded the outbreak will intensify. Under the existing international mechanism, the phenomenon of group heating and strengthening cooperation among national groups in seeking voice and interest propositions will become more frequent. Progress in global governance and reforms have been fraught before the outbreak, which has led to a more acute conflict.

In this outbreak, we see a trick in the economic principles used by multiple governments to throw money. Of course, if there are enough helicopters in the sky average, that is also a desirable method, but recently many people will question, why the economy is so bad, many places will rise property prices? In fact, it is another way to spend money, but also the wealth effect in economics.

Banks have always been the most realistic industry, he will only lend more money to the rich, but when you have a big question, the credit rating has been downgraded, he is "rain umbrella", that of course the government's think tank, more than I understand the game of economic games, so when the disaster comes, they will make the means to make house prices rise, first, this can give everyone confidence, even if it is unemployment, second, appreciation, you can not afford to buy a house, Borrow more money to come out and give yourself back to your house. Third, the house rose and remortgaged, you have excess money can be used to eliminate, more out to eat, buy more, more to KTV, pay more small ... It is a benign economic benefit.

It is absolutely politics that has the power in the world and has a direct impact on markets, and our time has been said by economists that the economy has its own cycle that no one can break.

Just as it happens, the president of the modern United States has completely broken this theory, and of course, in past world history, it has been proved that in many turbulent times, such as after the riots, after the plague, governments will try their best to boost the economy in order to appease the public or restore confidence in the future, and if the most Hong Kong people use a more direct Hong Kong context, the vast majority of Hong Kong people will find that their happiness index is linked to the Hang Seng Index.

The prospect of the world being divided and broken by an epidemic is not in the interests of most countries and people and should not be an option for rational decision makers.